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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It commonly serves as a type of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic improvement wins the prize. However, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or simply the greatest upset.

However the latest race is profoundly different. The pool of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners falling away and longtime underperformers rising collectively. During an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a chaotic and fun season, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still