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New Yorkers will discover who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and protects the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The election has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to Americans' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd