In October 2022, when Rishi Sunak took over as the UK's leader, he was the fifth UK leader to occupy the position in six years.
Unleashed on the UK by Britain's EU exit, this signified exceptional governmental instability. So what term captures what is occurring in the French Republic, now on its fifth prime minister in two years – three of them in the past 10 months?
The latest prime minister, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on Tuesday, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in exchange for opposition Socialist votes as the cost of his government’s survival.
But it is, at best, a temporary fix. The EU’s second-largest economy is trapped in a political permacrisis, the likes of which it has not experienced for decades – possibly not since the start of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no simple way out.
Minority Rule
Key background: ever since Macron initiated an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, the nation has had a hung parliament separated into three opposing factions – left, the far right and his own centre-right alliance – none with anything close to a majority.
Simultaneously, the country faces twin financial emergencies: its debt-to-GDP ratio and budget shortfall are now nearly double the EU limit, and strict legal timelines to pass a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are nigh.
Against that unforgiving backdrop, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.
In September, the president appointed his close ally Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu presented his government team – which proved to be largely unchanged from before – he encountered anger from both supporters and rivals.
To such an extent that the next day, he stepped down. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in recent French history. In a dignified speech, he blamed political intransigence, saying “partisan attitudes” and “personal ambitions” would make his job all but impossible.
Another twist in the tale: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for two more days in a final attempt to salvage cross-party backing – a task, to put it gently, filled with challenges.
Next, two ex-prime ministers publicly turned on the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and leftist LFI declined to engage with Lecornu, promising to vote down all future administrations unless there were snap elections.
Lecornu stuck at his job, talking to everyone who was prepared to hear him out. At the end of his 48 hours, he went on TV to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to avoid elections. The president’s office announced the president would name a fresh premier two days later.
Macron honored his word – and on that Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So recently – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the country’s rival political parties were “fuelling division” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Could he survive – and can he pass that vital budget?
In a high-stakes speech, the 39-year-old PM outlined his financial plans, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who detest Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were expecting: Macron’s flagship reform would be suspended until 2027.
With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already on board, the Socialists said they would refuse to support censorship votes proposed against Lecornu by the extremist factions – meaning the government should survive those ballots, scheduled for Thursday.
It is, however, by no means certain to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS clearly stated that it would be seeking more concessions. “This move,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”
Changing Political Culture
The issue is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, similar to the Socialists, the right-leaning parties are themselves split on dealing with the administration – some are still itching to topple it.
A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how difficult his mission – and future viability – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR want him out.
To achieve that, they need a majority of 288 votes in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in 24 months is, similar to his forerunners, toast.
Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Even if, by an unlikely turn, the dysfunctional assembly musters collective will to pass a budget by year-end, the outlook afterward look grim.
So does an exit exist? Snap elections would be unlikely to solve the problem: polls suggest pretty much every party bar the RN would see reduced representation, but there would remain no decisive majority. A new prime minister would face the same intractable arithmetic.
An alternative might be for Macron himself to resign. After winning the presidential election, his replacement would disband the assembly and aim for a legislative majority in the following election. But that, too, is uncertain.
Polls suggest the future president will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that French electorate, having elected a far-right president, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.
Ultimately, France may not escape its predicament until its politicians accept the new political reality, which is that decisive majorities are a thing of the past, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.
Many think that transformation will not be possible under the existing governmental framework. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.
“The regime … was never designed to facilitate – and actively discourages – the emergence of governing coalitions typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”
