Newly disclosed documents show that the UK's diplomatic corps cautioned against British military intervention to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".
Policy Papers Reveal Considerations on Handling a "Depressingly Healthy" Leader
Internal documents from the then Prime Minister's government indicate officials weighed up options on how best to handle the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who declined to leave office as the country fell into turmoil and financial collapse.
Faced with the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential options.
Isolation Strategy Considered Not Working
Officials agreed that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was failing, having failed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.
Options outlined in the files were:
- "Seek to remove Mugabe by force";
- "Implement tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and shuttering the UK embassy; or
- "Re-engage", the approach supported by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.
"Our experience shows from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its bad policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."
The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be willing to do so".
Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles
It cautioned that military involvement would cause heavy casualties and have "considerable implications" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.
"Short of a major humanitarian and political disaster – resulting in widespread bloodshed, large-scale refugee flows, and regional instability – we judge that no nation in Africa would agree to any attempts to remove Mugabe forcibly."
The document adds: "We also believe that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would sanction or join military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."
Long-Term Strategy Advocated
Blair's foreign policy adviser, a senior official, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been ruled out, "it is likely necessary that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.
Blair appeared to agree, noting: "We must devise a way of exposing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then subsequently, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a clear understanding."
The departing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".
The Zimbabwean leader was finally deposed in a military takeover in 2017, at the age of 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise Thabo Mbeki into joining a armed alliance to depose Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the ex-British leader.