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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would serve as guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government said it had not received the details of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. A key demand centers on Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he concluded.